New polls show older voters supporting Trump, Amendment 70 & 71 support remains largely unchanged

DENVER – New survey numbers from Denver-based pollster Magellan Strategies show older voters are far more likely to vote for Donald Trump than younger voters in Colorado and took a look at two of Colorado’s ballot measures just days out from Election Day.

The presidential polling survey released Thursday shows Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by six percentage points when factoring in third-party candidates, 44 percent to 38 percent.

The poll, which surveyed 500 likely Colorado voters via land lines and cell phones, found Trump leads male voters 44 to 39 percent, but that Clinton has a 17-point advantage over Trump among female voters.

The poll shows unaffiliated voters are picking Clinton by a 4-to-3 margin. Clinton polled at 39 percent among unaffiliated voters surveyed, compared to 29 percent for Trump and 13 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson. About 12 percent of unaffiliated voters surveyed said they were still undecided.

And when one looks at the breakdown by age groups, there is a stark trend that shows younger voters are picking Clinton or third-party candidates. But when looking at older age groups, people are increasingly likely to vote for Trump the older they are.

Among voters aged 18-34, Clinton leads Trump by 27 percentage points, 50 percent to 23 percent. Johnson polled at 13 percent among that age group – the largest demographic share for any candidate not named Trump or Clinton. Jill Stein drew 5 percent in the poll, and 7 percent of voters aged 18-34 are still undecided.

In the 35-44 age group, Clinton leads Trump 52-32 percent and Johnson drew 8 percent in the poll.

But those numbers turn sharply in the 45-54 age group, where Trump leads Clinton 41-38 percent in the poll. Johnson also drew 7 percent in the age group.

Among voters aged 55-64, the poll flips back to favor Clinton, 45-36 percent over Trump. Fewer voters in that age group are picking third-party candidates (only 9 percent between Johnson, Jill Stein and the other candidates on the ballot) and 10 percent said they were still undecided.

But Trump owns the Colorado senior vote according to the poll, which shows voters aged 65+ favoring Trump 58 percent to Clinton’s 35 percent. Three percent of those polled in the age group said they’d vote for Johnson, but Stein and other third-party candidates received 0 percent support.

Eighty-seven percent of Democrats in the poll say they’ll vote for Clinton, while only 3 percent said they’ll vote for Trump. Those numbers are similar on the contrary for Trump, as 82 percent of Republicans polled said they’d vote for the New York businessman, compared to 5 percent who said they’d vote for Clinton.

The survey has a +/- 4.38 percent margin of error. Magellan Strategies’ previous Colorado poll, conducted Oct. 12, showed Clinton drawing 40 percent of the vote, compared to 35 percent for Trump. Johnson’s support fell by 5 percentage points between the two polls, and Stein’s fell by 3 percentage points.

The poll queried between 60 and 85 people from each of Colorado’s seven congressional districts. Of those polled, 322 of the 500 people had already voted.

White voters were more-commonly registered as Republicans in the poll, which Hispanic and black voters were overwhelmingly registered as Democrats.

POLLS ON AMENDMENTS 70, 71 RELEASED

Magellan also conducted polling on Colorado ballot measures Amendment 70 and Amendment 71 over the same poll. They are the first polls done by Magellan on the measures since August, and the first overall since a Rocky Mountain PBS poll conducted mid-September.

The Amendment 70 poll finds 54 percent of voters support the initiative, which would increase the statewide minimum wage to $9.30 per hour starting Jan. 1, then raise it every year by $0.90 per hour until it reaches $12 an hour by Jan. 1, 2020.

Forty-three percent of those polled said they opposed the measure, and 3 percent were undecided.

These numbers differ only slightly from the August poll, which found 55 percent support, 42 percent opposition and 3 percent of people polled were undecided.

Women are far more likely to support the measure: 63 percent of women support the measure, compared to 34 percent who oppose it.

On the contrary, men are generally more opposed to raising the state’s minimum wage, according to the poll. It shows 52 percent of men oppose the measure, while 44 percent support it.

Young voters are far more likely to support the wage hike; 63 percent of voters aged 18-34 support the measure. That number decreases with nearly every increasing age group. Voters in the 45-54 age group show 55 percent support, but in both the 55-64 and 65+ age groups, support outweighs opposition by just 3 percent.

The poll shows the strongest support among Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

The polling on Amendment 71, which would change the process for amending the state constitution in Colorado, shows few minds have changed since Magellan’s last poll on that measure as well.

In August, support outweighed opposition 47-37 percent, while 15 percent were undecided. More people appear to have made up their minds since then, as the recent poll shows 51 percent support, 41 percent opposition and 8 percent of those polled are still undecided on the amendment.

Older Americans are far more likely to support Amendment 71. Support outweighs opposition among the 55-64 age group 59-36 percent, and among those polled aged 65+, 61 supported the measure, compared to 32 percent who opposed it.

But in the youngest voting group, people aged 18-34, 52 percent oppose the amendment, compared to 39 percent who support it.

The pro-71 political action committee, Raise the Bar Colorado, has raised more than $4 million for media and advertising, which dwarfs the amounts raised by opposition PACs.

The polls come as the major candidates and their surrogates flood Colorado in the final week before the General Election – seemingly knowing how tight the race in Colorado is.

Democrats have so far cast more ballots than Republicans or unaffiliated voters in Colorado, but Republicans have narrowed that gap toward the end of this week.

NEW KEATING RESEARCH, PUBLIC POLICY POLLS HAVE CLINTON UP BY 5

A new poll released Friday by Colorado-based Keating Research has Clinton up by five percentage points on Trump, 43-38. The poll surveyed 605 likely voters, and also found Clinton had 39 percent of support from unaffiliated voters surveyed, compared to 27 percent for Trump.

The poll also shows Democrat Michael Bennet has an 11-point lead over Republican Darryl Glenn in the U.S. Senate race, 49-38.

Public Policy Polling also released a new Colorado survey Friday that also shows Clinton (48 percent) with a five-point lead over Trump (43 percent).

In the same poll, Bennet leads Glenn 50-40. Fifty-five percent of people polled said they viewed Clinton as “unfavorable” and 60 percent view Trump as “unfavorable.”